Calculating Doubling Cube Option

Jade · Joined: 14 Jun 2007 Posts: 27

My question involves calculating my chances of winning the game. Many times I’ve seen advice given about the doubling cube in backgammon where it says that I should double if I have an X% chance of winning the game. If I’m towards the end of a game, I sort of understand how to calculate my chances to win the game in percentage. My problem starts, however, when I’m in a middlegame position. What is the formula for estimating whether my chances of winning stand at 50%, 70% or 80%?

NulloPlay · Joined: 14 Jun 2007 Posts: 11

One good way of improving your calculation skills would be to play GNU and employ its hint features. Invest in some good backgammon books and read up the relevant chapters. They usually give you the answers that you are looking for. Pick out the most common rules of thumb and write them down separately. In that way, you can apply them every time you play a game. An example of an obvious rule of thumb would be in the case that the game you are playing is just a race. In that case, you’d go for the pip count (with a few exceptions such as crossover or distribution issues). There are other common situations that I can’t think off the top of my head right now.

Your best bet would be to practice as much as you can. I learned how to calculate fairly accurately through many (many, many!) hours of backgammon play. Eventually you will learn to recognize that you have been in that particular situation before and you instinctively know the percentage.