Backgammon Probability Chart
Many players make use of a backgammon probability chart as a means of calculating their best move according to the statistics on the board. We have provided two charts for you to refer to: One that calculates for you the probability of entering one checker and two checkers from the bar and another that shows the percentages of hitting a blot.
Entering from the Bar
This chart explains the probability of entering one or two checkers from the bar position. The text in blue refers to one checker on the bar, while the text in red refers to two checkers on the bar.
If one checker is on the bar: Even if you find yourself in a situation where your opponent has closed four full points, your chances of entering are still 50%. However, when the opponent has five full points closed (meaning that only one point is open on the board), the odds are not in your favor for entering.
If two checkers are on the bar: By looking at the backgammon probability chart , you can see that your position is totally different from the first scenario. To achieve a little more than a 50% chance of entering your checkers from the bar, you need five full points to do so. With four open points, your chances border on only 44%
Hitting a Blot
This chart explains the probability of hitting a blot. It lists the number of points away, the ways to be hit and the chances of being hit. It explains the percentages of hitting the blot no matter where the blot is situated on the backgammon board. The probability chart assumes that the points between the player’s checker and the blot in question are open, although this is often not the case.
Let us take a look at some probabilities:
The opponent’s checker is 24 points away. What dice formula will hit the checker? A quick calculation shows that only double sixes will do the trick. This gives you a 3% chance of hitting the checker (ie. a 1 out of 36 chance).
What happens if the opponent’s checker is 12 points away? There are three different dice rolls that can hit this checker – double threes, double fours and double sixes.
Once the opponent’s checker gets closer, the percentages change drastically in your favor. If, for example, the opponent’s checker is only six points away, you have nearly a 50% chance of hitting it, with 17 different dice sequences that will allow you to do so. If you look at the chart, you will note that when the opponent’s checker moves to seven points away, the percentage drops drastically to a mere 17% as only six different dice sequences are able to hit the number.
